The Rise of the Internet Tablet: The Keys to Success
The Internet tablet is entering a crowded market of mobile devices, but it has the opportunity to carve out a portion of the fast growing mobile electronics market segment for those that can deliver a complete solution that includes the device, content, applications, and wireless services that offer a unique usage model to users at an attractive price.
This report examines the potential for what In-Stat defines as an Internet tablet by: - Examining the evolution of the mobile electronics market - Comparing tablets to other mobile devices - Evaluating the keys to success in terms of technology, content/applications, wireless services, and business models - Providing an outlook for both consumer and commercial segments of the market - Analyzing the bill-of-materials of a tablet and forecasting the future trends - Examining the initial products and strategies of some of the initial market entrants, such as Apple.
The report also provides TAM figures for silicon and non-silicon components based on the device forecasts and estimated bill-of-materials.
This report provides a summary by bandwidth, technology, and region in pivot tables for quick analysis of trends using a combination of subscriptions as well as handset shipments and revenues.
This report includes: -Five-year subscriptions forecasts by wireless technology and region (CDMA, GSM/EDGE, CDMA EV-DO, TD-SCDMA, WCDMA/HSPA/HSPA+, and LTE) -Five-year handset shipment and revenue forecasts by technology and region.
Future Cellphones: Leveraging Building Blocks for Better Experiences
The majority of phones entering the market over the next few years will provide very different user experiences from those available today. The accelerated adoption of open operating systems has created an innovative environment unique to this market. With compelling user interfaces creating competitive advantages, the market has now shifted its focus from individual features to integrating and improving on existing capabilities to provide the best experience.
This report identifies and quantifies users’ interest in the features and capabilities of their current phones and in what they want in their next phone, while tracking the changes in these opinions over time. The report is In-Stat’s fourth annual future phone study which surveys members of In-Stat’s Technology Adoption Panel (TAP).
The report explores a number of areas: -Current and future cellphone form factors and input preferences -Users’ interest in specific features and capabilities -Emerging technologies that will enable new features and capabilities -Market segments that are leading adoption of new features -Vendors’ progress on bringing new phones, features, and services to market
The worldwide smartphone industry is one of the few that has successfully weathered the current recession; in fact, smartphones actually seem to be recession-proof. But while the number of smartphones continues to grow, so does the number of smartphone OSs, so much so, that 2010 looks like it will be a pivotal year for the survival of smartphone OSs.
This report looks at smartphone trends, including operating systems, hardware content, and consumer preferences, and backs up these trends with a smartphone forecast, regional forecast, a forecast for each major smartphone OS, and forecasts for smartphones with GPS, picoprojectors, accelerometers, image sensors, Wi-Fi, and Bluetooth. Also included are survey results on what features users want in their smartphones, and a bill-of-materials for a typical smartphone.
This report provides a summary by bandwidth, technology, and region in pivot-tables for quick analysis of trends using a combination of subscriptions as well as handset shipments and revenues.
This report includes: -Five-year subscriptions forecasts by wireless technology and region (CDMA, GSM/EDGE, CDMA EV-DO, TD-SCDMA, WCDMA/HSPA/HSPA+, and LTE) -Five-year handset shipment and revenue forecasts by technology and region.
This report provides a brief view of worldwide mobile PC revenues and shipments. It contains 5-year revenue forecasts for the mobile PC segment as well as 5-year unit shipment forecasts broken down by form factor (notebook, netbook, ultra mobile, and MID). Additionally, historical total unit shipments are provided for the top 5 PC vendors.
This report provides a summary by bandwidth, technology, and region in pivot-tables for quick analysis of trends using a combination of subscriptions as well as handset shipments and revenues.
This report includes: -Five-year subscriptions forecasts by wireless technology and region (CDMA, GSM/EDGE, CDMA EV-DO, TD-SCDMA, WCDMA/HSPA/HSPA+, and LTE) -Five-year handset shipment and revenue forecasts by technology and region.
The introduction of the MID and UMPC platforms has ignited the market for mobile devices to combine communications, computing, and entertainment functionality around the use of the Internet, or the true convergence device. Much of this is due to the efforts of one company—Intel. However, the potential for these and other mobile devices is changing rapidly due to changes in critical technologies, applications, customer expectations and usage models, and even emerging business models that are often driven by the carriers.
Despite the impact of MIDs and UMPCs on the market, they still face challenges in overcoming performance limitations and in attracting interest from both consumers and carriers. These platforms also face the challenge of creating definitive positions in the mobile market as an increasing number of other cellular and consumer devices become connected for more specific applications. While this does not limit the potential success of these platforms, it does create some challenges.
This report examines the changing market dynamics for the MID and UMPC platforms.
The Recession Reshapes the Worldwide Cellular Handset 5-Year Forecast
This In-Dustry Update includes handset shipment, revenues, and ASP forecasts revised using new data about the current economic downturn.
Although cellphone shipments and subscription numbers have held up relatively well, In-Stat believes that the next two years could be difficult for the cellphone industry. Subscription growth is slowing and replacement phones represent a discretionary purchase that can be delayed in times of economic hardship.
This research is critical to companies who are part of the cellphone supply chain.
Included in this research are: - Global mobile phone shipments, revenue, and average selling price by region and technology. - Comparisons with previous forecasts and discussion on the effects of current economic conditions.
Embedded Picoprojectors Ready to Break Out Worldwide
Projector technology has been miniaturizing to the point that a complete projector module can fit into 5cc or less. At the same time, personal devices are providing more entertainment but are limited by screen size. As a result, many companies are developing projectors to embed in a range of products, from cellphones to computers. In-Stat believes this confluence of supply and demand will result in an industry exceeding $1.1 billion within five years.This research provides market sizing and five-year forecasts for products using picoprojector modules: accessory projectors, cellphones, computing devices, personal media players, and other consumer electronics.This report also explains and evaluates competing illumination technologies (LED, laser) as well as MEMS and liquid crystal on silicon (LCoS) displays. Also included are profiles of key technology vendors.The forecasts and data provide key decision making data for companies offering picoprojector modules or components. Manufacturers of media players, digital cameras and camcorders, mobile phones, and suppliers of laptop, netbook, ultra-mobile PCs, and mobile Internet devices will also need to understand the market dynamics and picoprojector technology.
Unit sales of smartphones have been growing faster than the overall market for cellphones. This report finds that this trend will continue through 2013, based upon increased user demand. In the survey from this report, the demand in the US grew by a factor of five from the levels found between 2005 and 2007. This demand is primarily driven by greater competition for mobile applications that add capabilities. New and prospective smartphone buyers are drawn to new mobile applications, even though the median number of applications downloaded for all platforms, including the Apple iPhone, is relatively modest—below five applications per user for each platform.
After a period of slower growth owing to uncertain economic conditions, the smartphone market will grow over 20% annually over the next five years.
This report includes: -Forecasts and market shares for smartphone OS sales to 2013 -Global sales of smartphones by region -Global upside potential and threats to the smartphone market -Approaches to ensure security of smartphones and cellphones -End-user research of non-users of smartphones -Buying behavior for different smartphone platforms -Non-user interest in buying smartphones -Changes in attitudes regarding preferences for features and applications
Future Cellphones: Diverging the Converged Device 2008–2012
In the coming five years, the nature of cellphones will make radical changes for several reasons: -Increasing availability of broadband mobile networks will allow Internet access from a much wider area. -Operator support for data-intensive devices. The near-term beneficiary of this phenomenon will be smartphones, which are starting to move from the business market to consumers. -Improvements in usability for mobile devices, brought about by the influence of the Apple iPhone.
In-Stat also believes that consumers are nearing their limits with the added complexity of "converged devices." Increasing numbers of data-intensive devices may encourage operators to offer simplified communication devices (i.e., voice and text) while encouraging the development of new devices better suited to particular applications.
This research is based on the results of ongoing consumer surveys conducted primarily in North America, noting changes in attitudes toward a number of handset features and functions. In addition, there are recommendations about dealing with the increasing complexity in cellphones that is increasing costs without substantially increasing value to the end users.
A Tarnished Silver Anniversary for Handsets—Worldwide Handset and Semiconductor Forecast
This year the cellphone industry celebrates its 25th year, and these last 25 years have been spectacular. Growth has gone up and up, phones have gotten better every year, and today half the people on the planet have a cellphone. The cellphone industry seemed Teflon-coated, and nothing bad could stick to it. Unfortunately, those times may well be over, and the industry needs to adjust.
This report provides a comprehensive view of cellphone shipments, cellphone revenue, and cellphone semiconductor revenue, along with a 5-year forecast for each. In addition, breakdowns by region and technology are included so that the trends can be analyzed more deeply. For anyone wanting to see it all in the cellular phone business, this is the report you must have.
Global Cellular Video Devices: Internet Video Expands the Market
Until recently, "mobile video" referred to content delivered to cellphones over the 3G network or out-of-band broadcast systems such as ISDB-T, DVB-H, or MediaFLO. However, the recent surge of Internet-delivered video means nearly any mobile device with an Internet connection can display video.
Even though cellphones and smartphones will remain the predominant method of viewing mobile video, In-Stat forecasts over 160 million devices will be sold in the coming five years that provide mobile video service over networks now in exclusive use by cellphones. In addition:
This research includes worldwide device shipment forecasts for video-connected: -Computing devices, such as mobile Internet devices (MIDs), ultra-mobile PCs (UMPCs), and laptop/notebook computers. -Cellphones and smartphones, including the RIM BlackBerry, Apple iPhone, and smartphones having Symbian, Windows Mobile, Palm OS, Android, and Linux operating systems. -Consumer electronics products, including personal navigation devices (PNDs), portable media players (PMPs), and handheld games, such as the PSP and Nintendo DS.
The forecasts cover devices that will be able to provide mobile video from mobile operators (including MobiTV, GoTV and VCast), out-of-band cellular video (ISDB-T, DVB-H, MediaFLO, DMB-T and others), as well as devices that access the Internet over 3G networks.
Cellphone Trends in US Enterprises: A Small Step from Personal Wireless
This report examines how users buy and use cellphones and wireless services today, how businesses and employees reconcile each other for business or personal usage, and the features that business users value today that make them more productive.
It is widely believed within the wireless industry that business users are the most profitable users of wireless devices and services. What is less certain is what business users want today. This is a complicated issue, primarily because many end-user organizations allow their employees to mix personal and business use with their cellphones and service.
The report then looks at the features that the users need for business productivity and want for the personal use of the phone. The personal application of business phones is relevant because 97% of users report at least some personal use, and over 80% of respondents choose the phone they use for business.
The report also looks at the trends in employee reimbursement for business wireless use. The past trend for more business liability has been towards greater corporate liability for business use. This year shows a large increase in firms not reimbursing their employees for business calls. This practice helps the budget, but costs firms in lost productivity and competitiveness. This report shows that there is a difference in business call usage measured in hours each month between employees based upon how their employer pays for business calls (or not).
2Q08 Mobile Devices—Worldwide Economic Slowdown Not Bad Yet
At the beginning of an economic slowdown, 2Q08 shows that the handset market still contains lots of life. For the quarter, cellular handset shipments exceeded 305 million.
This quarterly update contains 2Q08 cellular handset market share by manufacturer, handset ASP by technology, shipments by technology and region, handset revenue by region and technology, camera phone shipments, smartphone shipments, and smartphone OS market share.
This report is required reading for anyone who wants to read the pulse of the worldwide cellular phone industry.
The iPhone and gPhone: Shaking Up the Wireless World
There has always been a communications gap between executives of phone companies, including wireless operators, and the executives of the Silicon Valley. Increasingly, mobile telephone companies have hoped to offer more net-like applications and content but have simultaneously erected barriers that prevent them from fully embracing the Internet culture.
Two Silicon Valley companies are attempting to bridge (or bypass) this divide by changing the way handsets and their applications are designed and distributed. In 2007, Apple and Google each announced efforts to reshape the wireless industry. Apple launched the iPhone in January 2007 and just recently it updated the platform with the iPhone 3G. Google announced Android in November 2007 along with marketing partners—the Open Handset Alliance.
This report looks at the recent developments and presents our analysis of their respective initiatives. Among the highlights are: -Apple's iPhone had ambitions to change the wireless industry. Now it looks like it will just sell a large number of very exciting phones. -Google's Android Project will kick-start location-aware advertising by enabling the benefits of mobile Linux—if it can create a good revenue sharing model for its wireless operator partners. -Google will hedge its Android bet by working with others for location-aware searches, including Apple's iPhone.
The Symbian Foundation–A Battle Royal for the Ecosystem
Nokia announced that it would buy-out its partners in the Symbian OS venture. Simultaneously, the owners of the intellectual property surrounding Symbian announced the Symbian Foundation to offer cellphone manufacturers licenses for the Symbian OS at no charge.
This is a strategic move to shore up the Symbian third-party application development ecosystem in the face of new challenges from Google's Android, Apple's iPhone, and increasing consumer interest in BlackBerry devices from Research in Motion. This report looks at the underlying logic of this effort and the implications of the Symbian Foundation business plan.
This report details mobile device shipments by region, technology, and worldwide for 1Q08. The report covers shipments of mobile devices, camera phones, and smartphones. The first quarter of 2008 continued to remain strong in device shipments, although there was an expected decrease in shipments following the holiday season.
Nokia remained in the lead of worldwide distribution, with Samsung holding second place, Motorola finishing third this quarter, LG Electronics overtaking Sony Ericsson to become the fourth place manufacturer, and Sony Ericsson rounding out the top five handset manufacturers.
-Smartphone growth continues, especially in the Asia/Pacific region. -Symbian continues to lead the smartphone operating system arena although they saw a sharp decrease in market share this quarter. -Apple shipped 1.73 million iPhones in the first quarter of 2008, and plans to expand their market globally next quarter.
Competing Mobile Device Visions for the US: UMPCs, MIDs, and Smartphones
As categories of mobile devices converge, In-Stat has identified four primary types of productivity tools—the ultra-mobile PC (UMPC), the mobile Internet device (MID), smartphones, and smartphones with mobile companions. To determine which of these may have an advantage among US consumers, In-Stat commissioned a survey to test attitudes and perceptions. Based upon the preferences of 1,759 respondents, it appears that there are two “winners,” a potential winner, and one with an uncertain future.
The clear winner in the survey is the smartphone, either alone or with a mobile companion. Nearly half of the respondents chose the benefits and capabilities associated with smartphones. Helping its chances for success are the established and successful channels of distribution and that the actual pricing of this solution is somewhat less than end-user expectations. That smartphones are established as a valuable solution today makes the sales process easier than for the other mobile device options.
To derive these results, the survey asked questions about the devices respondents currently own, carry with them regularly, that they plan to buy in the near future, and what devices they plan to retire. This information is meant to help any participant in the mobile device marketplace, including the software and accessories ecosystem, better anticipate customer demand and expectations.
Here Come UMDs: A Worldwide UMD and PC Forecast for 2008
With 2008 looking to be a year of contradiction, ultra mobile devices are forecast to grow nicely, but critical market inflection points aligning usage, technology, and business models have yet to be achieved. Desktop PC growth is expected to remain steady but the growth drivers for PCs, in general, are anticipated to transition to notebooks. This report helps companies look at the 2008 forecast for UMDs and PCs and understand the significant factors affecting product strategies and market growth.
Highlights from this report include: -UMDs growth to be 72.6% in 2008, if hitting on all cylinders. -Continued concern over infrastructure, business models, form factors, and user interfaces are affecting the user experience. -Non-computer makers are making plays by entering the mobile Internet space. They even label their products UMDs. -Notebook PCs are the new major growth engine in PCs. Growth of 15.4% anticipated in 2008. -Desktop PC growth will be flat, at 0.1% growth, in 2008 but a steady contributor at 6.8% growth in 2010. -Slowdown in the marketplace will delay the notebook/desktop crossover, with 2009–2010 now anticipated for notebook volumes to exceed desktop volumes.
Wi-Fi mobile convergence made a strong showing this year at CTIA. In the past, carriers believed Wi-Fi would marginalize cellular and often deactivated the 802.11 technologies in their handsets.
Although cellular/Wi-Fi handsets have been available for the past several years, the segment got a strong boost in 2007, when Apple launched the iPhone. With an innovative touch screen that allows the user to view Web pages with the tap of a finger, the iPhone raised the bar for device usability, functionality, and design.
Discussions with vendors at CTIA indicate that Wi-Fi is clearly becoming a complementary function to cellular. Devices that support both cellular and Wi-Fi promise to leverage licensed and unlicensed spectrum to deliver the best possible customer experience at the lowest cost.
CTIA 2008: "Cellphones" Aren't Just Cellphones Anymore
The shockwaves started by the iPhone over a year earlier were being felt at the annual gathering of the Cellular Telephony and Internet Association (CTIA). This In-Stant Analysis looks at a couple of high-end cellphones that offer touch screens and multimedia capabilities as well as an instant-messaging-centered device called the Ogo from IXI Mobile.
The Revolution in Personal and Mobile Devices is Here
The personal and mobile device market is undergoing a rapid change as the distinction blurs among cellphone, personal entertainment device, and ultra-mobile PCs. In-Stat presents its views on the market forces causing this trend as well as the possible outcomes and effects on device vendors and service providers.
This report details mobile device shipments by region, technology, and worldwide for 4Q07. Covered in the report are shipments of mobile devices, camera phones, and smartphones. The final quarter of 2007 continued to remain strong in device shipments, due in large part to expanding markets in China, India, and the Middle East.
Nokia remained in the lead of worldwide distribution, with Samsung holding second place; Motorola finishing third this quarter; Sony Ericsson holding fourth place; and LG Electronics rounding out the top five handset manufacturers. A summary of all new phones released during 4Q07 is also included in this report.
-Smartphone growth continues, especially in Japan. Symbian continues to lead the smartphone operating system arena with almost 70% of market share. -A majority of all handsets shipped in 4Q07 were based on demand from China, India, and emerging markets in the Middle East. -Apple shipped 2.315 million iPhones in the final quarter of 2007, expanding their market to select European countries.
Devices can make or break mobile broadband and related services. Operators price their services and build applications based on available devices. Devices attract users to new services. Having the right device can make a service a success, such as the iPhone, while the wrong device can kill a service, such as those available to the now defunct Cellular Digital Packet Data.
Cellular operators are looking at dual-mode phones and femtos, which are devices that could change how services are offered. For WiMAX, just getting working devices on the market is needed to get the technology going. Wi-Fi is popping up all over the place, and this has forced Business IT to deal with all sorts of new issues.
This report includes: -Data on mobile devices across 3G, WiMAX, and Wi-Fi -The ways in which devices have impacted the growth of WiBro in South Korea -The three categories of WiMAX devices and how those different categories will employ different services -The ways in which business IT has been impacted by the increasing number of mobile data devices—especially Wi-Fi -Coverage on topics like: femtocells, dual-mode handsets, Wi-Fi/cellular, UMA, WiMAX, WiBro, Wi-Fi access points, Wi-Fi consumer electronics.
The ultra mobile device space has been an enigma for many, as market watchers try to determine if it’s a market verging on explosive growth, and, therefore, an opportunity that should not be missed, or, instead, a market that was never meant to be. With major market events such as the ITU acceptance of WiMAX as a 3G standard, In-Stat takes a snapshot look back at the events of 2007 in the UMD market in an attempt to better understand if there is momentum that should not be ignored. Along with the historical snapshot, this report also considers some of the key challenges the market segment faces looking forward. This report considers the following questions:
-Can there be two internets? There can only be one full-featured Internet. -Will users be able to have true mobile connectivity? WiMAX and Gobi bringing anywhere/anytime access closer to reality. -Will the consumer accept mobile Internet usage? Companies such as Samsung, Intel, Nokia, and Apple think so, given the successes of 2007’s UMPC, MID, and smart phone products. -What are my choices for giving users 8 hours + run times? Moorestown and Isaiah to the rescue.
