The Market Opportunity for Ultra-High Definition Video
Ultra-High Definition (UHD) video includes 4K (3840 x 2160 pixels) and 8K (7680 x 4320 pixels) resolution. This is significantly higher than today’s 1080p HD resolution. UHD will first be seen in the cinema. Then when the broadcast infrastructure is in place and consumers purchase new UHD TV sets they will be able to see UHD programs at home. This report identifies the elements that are required for UHD programming to be seen and the time frame for its market development. A description of the UHD value chain including content creation, cinema distribution, broadcast and in-home technologies enables the reader to understand the various elements that must come together before UHD TV becomes a mainstream technology. The report includes 15 year forecasts by region and worldwide for UHDTV units, ASPs, and manufacturers' revenue for both 4K and 8K resolution.
Advertising is undergoing fundamental changes. Traditional TV programming delivers a repeatable audience that advertisers can plan their ad campaigns around. But consumers are consuming more content as Ad-supported Video-on-Demand (VOD). The current growth of Ad-supported online video services has drawn great interest. However, audiences on the Internet may not be repeatable. The Pay-TV industry has developed a comprehensive approach for VOD that accesses subscriber information and can deliver ads to very specific, and repeatable, demographic groups. During the next five years the Pay-TV approaches, tied to popular TV shows, videos, movies and music content, will come into their own, and eventually represent a larger advertising opportunity than the online VOD services. The Pay-TV services will then extend what they’ve learned to online TV Everywhere services. Because the Pay-TV services deliver qualified audiences, we expect them to be able to negotiate higher Cost per Thousand (CPM) fees than the online services.
All Ad-supported Video-on-Demand services will experience revenue growth. By 2013, we expect that the advertising value for online video services will be US$1.9 Billion, and value of the Pay-TV services will be nearly US$2.9 Billion.
Global Interactive Program Guides and Content Discovery
TV-oriented Electronic Program Guides (EPGs) and Interactive Program Guides (IPGs) are slowly being replaced by new Content and Service Discovery Guides (CSDGs) that can “discover” content from the Internet, or from in-home networks. ROVI, which has acquired Gemstar-TV guide, Mediabolic, Muze, and All Music Group, has an early lead for providing “discovery” of content and services across all available sources. As standards begin to define the interfaces, opportunities will be created for a wide range of entrants. Findings include:
1. Three revenue segments: one-time licensing fees, recurring fees to update guide data, and advertising.
2. Europe will be a key growth market for all types of Guides.
3. Personal content that resides on in-home networks makes the Digital Living Network Alliance (DLNA) much more important.
4. The market is holding its own in spite of the current economic situation.
5. ROVI is focusing on content description data bases as a key differentiator.
Recurring fees will grow to US$ 850 million, representing 63% of the total value by 2013. One-time licensing fees will be nearly US$ 500 million, accounting for about 37% of the total worldwide value.
Content Providers have been working on an “Internet learning curve” for the past decade. They can’t permit an entity, such as Apple, to be the control point for their content. Content companies are using their in-house engineering and software capabilities to figure out how to manage their digital assets, and working with trusted partners to create approaches that give them increased control, lower the cost of operation, and widen their revenue possibilities. The key solutions run in Data Centers, and connect using Content Delivery Networks (CDNs).
Traditional Subscription-TV services are deploying new approaches, like RS-DVR, StartOver, and Catch UP TV. TV Anywhere permits a subscriber to access their authorized Content from a PC when they are not at home. Mobile services will permit subscribers to “tap into” their at-home storage devices.
Completely new opportunities will arise for “Outside-the-Home” services that provide premium Content in public venues. Fiber-to-the-Home and DOCSIS 3.0 technologies may create high-dollar Pay-per-View opportunities.
We expect the worldwide value of CDNs to grow from about US$ 1.25 Billion during 2008, up to about US$ 2.5 Billion in 2013. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
This report discusses the market and drivers for multiple segments of the real-time broadcast MPEG encoder market, including contribution, distribution, and redistribution to the home. These encoders are used to compress video streams before transmission. This report also looks at future technologies making their way into the encoder market, such as 1080p/60, SVC, and 4:2:2. The five-year unit, ASP, and revenue forecasts are segmented by compression scheme, MPEG-2 and H.264, with further segmenting into HD and SD, and by region. Vendor market share is provided for a few top vendors.
This report includes the following: -Forecasts for encoder shipments, ASPs, and revenues for mobile contribution, fixed contribution, distribution, and cable, satellite, mobile, terrestrial, and telco redistribution segments. Each segment is further divided by HD MPEG-2, SD MPEG-2, HD H.264, and SD H.264 encoders, each broken out into four regions: Americas, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and Mid-East/Africa. -Top 5 encoder vendor market shares
