Annual Wrapup: Intel Microprocessors Service

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Report Abstract, Table of Contents, List of Tables, List of Figures

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Annual Wrapup: Intel Microprocessors Service

Service: Intel Microprocessors
Report Number: IN0401105IN
Publication Date: June 2004
Number of Pages: 40
Report Price: $2,495 U.S. Dollars
Analyst: Kevin Krewell

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Abstract
This report wraps up our coverage of Intel's processors for 2003 and provides a summary and updated information on events in 2003 for the previous sections of the report. The report summarizes the effect of a recovering economy on Intel’s products and manufacturing capacities. Looking back at 2003 also provides indicators of Intel’s strategies for 2004 and beyond.

This report includes an appendix, Backup Data, with the latest data from the MDR model of Intel’s computer processor (CPU) shipments. Although we no longer include revenue forecasts for Intel's microprocessor business, we continue to project ASPs and processor volumes. Updated estimates through 4Q05 are provided for CPU shipments, sorted by processor die and market segments. Estimates for processor ASPs and manufacturing costs are provided through 4Q04, sorted by processor microarchitecture generation and market segment. Data, dating back as far as 1995, is supplied to provide a historical context to Intel’s present and future plans. Data is provided on historical pricing on obsolete Intel processors.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
Methodology
- Shipment Model
- Fab Model
- Manufacturing Capacity and Die Cost
- Price Estimates
- Caveats and Uncertainties
Introduction
Intel’s Processors in 2003
Intel Processor Technology
- The Pentium 4 Family
  - Willamette-128
  - Northwood
  - NorthwoodX, NorthwoodX-lite
  - Gallatin
  - Prescott, Prescott-lite
  - Tejas
  - Tulsa
  - Merced
  - McKinley
  - Madison
  - Montecito
- Technology Trends
  - Packaging
- Power Dissipation
Intel Manufacturing in 2003
Intel Desktop Processors in 2003
- Overview
- 2003 Roadmap Events
- Pricing Trends
Intel Server Processors in 2003
- Overview
- 2003 Roadmap Events
- Pricing Trends
Intel Mobile Processors in 2003
- Overview
- Roadmap Events
- Pricing Trends
Intel’s x86 Competitors in 2003
- AMD
- Transmeta
- VIA
Appendix: Backup Data
- Historical Processor Pricing
  - Desktop CPU
  - Mobile CPU
  - Server CPU
- Shipment Data
  - Units
- Average Price and Cost

List of Tables

Table 1. A brief summary of current and future Intel processors. Market segments: DP=desktop performance, DV=desktop value, MP=mobile performance, MV=mobile value, WS=workstation and low-end server, S=server
Table A-1. Intel list pricing for desktop Pentium processors, 1993–1998. Note that Intel did not market desktop Pentium processors before 2Q93 or after 4Q98
Table A-2. Intel list pricing for desktop P6 processors, 1995–mid-1999. Note that Intel did not market P6 processors before 4Q95. *Covington, a Deschutes processor with no L2 cache, was marketed as Celeron
Table A-3. Intel list price for 0.25-micron Pentium III, intro-EOL (end of life) *Marketed as Pentium III-600B
Table A-4. Intel list price for 0.25-micron Celeron, 1Q99–EOL (end of life) *Price took effect at introduction on 4/26/99
Table A-5. Intel list price for 0.18-micron Pentium III, intro–EOL
Table A-6. Intel list price for 0.18-micron P6-based Celeron, intro–EOL
Table A-7. Intel list price for 0.18-micron Pentium 4, intro–EOL
Table A-8. Intel list price for 0.18-micron NetBurst Celeron, intro–EOL
Table A-9. List prices for Coppermine-128–based and Tualatin-256–based desktop Celeron with a 100MHz bus, intro–EOL
Table A-10. Intel list pricing for Mobile Pentium processors, 1995–1Q99. Note that Intel did not market Mobile Pentium processors before 1Q95 or after 1Q99
Table A-11. Intel list prices for Mobile Pentium II, intro-EOL. Prices for BGA version; minicartridges cost $18 more
Table A-12. Intel list price for 0.18-micron Mobile Pentium III Coppermine, intro–EOL
Table A-13. Intel list price for 0.18-micron mobile Celeron, intro–EOL. * at 6/19 intro
Table A-14. Intel list pricing for Pentium Pro server models, 4Q95–4Q98. Intel did not market Pentium Pro processors before 4Q95 or after 4Q98
Table A-15. Intel list price for Xeon processors, 1Q99 to 1Q03
Table A-16. Intel list price for Itanium processors, 1Q99–1Q03
Table A-17. Intel processor shipments by product type, 386 through Pentium, 1Q93–EOL. Note that Intel did not ship Pentium processors after 2Q99. Figures are in thousands of units
Table A-18. Intel processor shipments by product type, P6 family, intro–4Q05. Intel did not ship P6 processors before 4Q95. Cascades includes all large-cache versions. Figures are in thousands of units
Table A-19. Intel processor shipments by product type, P7 family and IA-64 family, intro–4Q05. Willamette, Northwood, Prescott include shrinks and Celeron versions. Gallatin, Nocoma, McKinley, and Madison include all large-cache versions. Figures are in thousands of units
Table A-20. Intel quarterly shipments by processor family, 1Q95–4Q05. Figures are in thousands of units
Table A-21. Intel quarterly shipments by segment, 1Q95–4Q05. Figures in thousands of units
Table A-22. Intel average selling price by processor family, 1Q95–4Q04
Table A-23. Intel average selling price by segment, 1Q95–4Q04
Table A-24. Average per-unit manufacturing cost by processor family, 1Q95–4Q04
Table A-25. Average per-unit manufacturing cost by segment, 1Q95–4Q0

List of Figures

Figure 1. Intel prices always trend downward but can plateau for up to a quarter. Mainstream Pentium 4 processors typically are introduced at $637 and fall rapidly, but Intel introduced the 3.4GHz Prescott at only $417. Intel has held introduction prices of the Pentium 4 Extreme Editions
flat, like their XeonMP processor cousins
Figure 2. AMD’s processor roadmap, revealed at the annual AMD analyst conference November 6, 2003

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