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| Online Gaming: Where the Lost Boys Are |
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In the last year, Online Gaming (OLG) has received
a lot of attention. In part, this is because it is a wonderfully ambiguous term
that actually encompasses a myriad of topics. The two most recognized areas are
Massive Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games (MMORPGs) and Online Console Gaming
(OCG), despite the fact that even when those two markets are combined, ten times
as many people are playing the other forms of OLG, such as Counter Strike and
WarCraft III. For OCG, the attention is warranted because dozens of millions of
gamers will be paying an average of $25 a year to reach out and frag somebody
by 2008. Unfortunately, MMORPGs, in their current form, are not expected to actually
peak in US revenues until 2005, and will then decline slowly through 2008. This
is because the nominal first year costs for many of these games are over $200.
Considering how much time the average gamer spends with OLG, that translates to
over $1/hr for MMORPGs, whereas the other forms of OLG cost a tenth of that.
However, when you consider the $50 billion involved in the TV advertising
markets, this lends some hope to MMORPGs. It seems likely that as more people,
especially men, get involved in OLG, then at least some of those ad revenues will
likely come with them, and that will help grow the OLG market to nearly $4 billion
by 2008. All aspects of OLG are covered in the report, including detailed forecasts
of subscribers, revenues, and Petabits, plus strategic guidance |
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- Executive Summary
- Methodology
- Introduction
- Technical Overview
- Genre Definitions
- Massive
Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game (MMORPG)
- Role Playing
Games (RPGs)
- First Person
Shooters (FPSs)
- Real-Time
Strategy Games (RTSGs)
- Turn-Based
Strategy Games (TBSGs)
- Racing
and Flying Games (RaFGs)
- Action/Adventure
(A/A)
- Simulation
- Sports
- The Topography
of Online Gaming
- The Gaming
Triangle
- Servers
Versus Uplinks
- The Future
of Network Equipment
- The Future
of Periphery and Displays
- Future Uses
of Gaming Technology
- Entertainment
- Education
- Medical
- Summary
of the Future Uses
- Market Overview
- The 13 Reasons
Why OLG Will Be Huge
- Gaming
is Profitable
- Gaming
is Fun
- Gaming
is Addictive
- Gaming
"Generations" are Short
- Better
Games Will Drive the Need for Better Silicon
- Better
Games Will Drive the Need for Better Software
- Gaming
Technology is the Next Step in Digital Evolution
- Gaming
as a Form of Advertising will be Huge
- Broadband
Changes How People Play Games
- Broadband
Could Change the Way People Get Games
- Broadband
Providers Will Embrace Gamers
- Broadband
Providers Will Need to Fight Churn
- Broadband
Providers Need Digital Content Worth Paying For
- PC versus Console
Gaming
- Value versus
Cost
- A Brave New
World for Advertising
- Forecast
- All Online
Console Subscriptions
- Xbox Live
- PS2 Online
- GameCube
Online
- Summary
- MMORPG Forecasts
- Overall Online
Gamers & Revenues
- Total Online
Gaming Revenues
- Total US Online
Gaming Data Consumptions
- Strategies For
Broadband Providers
- Phase I
- Phase II
- Phase III
- Summary
- Table 1. US Population
Versus RTS Population, by Age and Gender
- Table 2. Top MMORPGs
by 2003 Subscribers and Their Yearly Subscription Revenues
- Table 3. Top MMORPGs
by 2003 Subscribers and Their Yearly Subscription Revenues
- Table 4. Bandwidth
Efficiencies for Peer-to-Peer and Client/Server Configurations
- Table 5. Dial-Up
Subscribers Top Reasons for Not Getting Broadband in 2002
- Table 6. Dial-Up
Users Interest in Lower Speed/Lower Cost Broadband Service
- Table 7. How a
HS/AO Connection Could Pay for Itself in Savings from Buying Games
- Table 8. Forecast
of US Households with Broadband Access, 2002-2007 (k subscribers)
- Table 9. Average
Data Usage for Web Surfing per Month per Web Surfer
- Table 10. Ad-Based
versus Subscriber-Based OLG Models
- Table 11. Paid
Online Console Forecast for Subscribers and Revenues, 2003 - 2008
- Table 12. Free
Online Console Forecast for Subscribers and Data Transfers, 2003 - 2008
- Table 13. Paid
Online Console Forecast for Subscribers and Data Transfers, 2003 - 2008
- Table 14. Peak
Online Game Playing for PS2, from 12/25/2002 to 1/1/2003
- Table 15. Free
and Paid Online Console Subscriber Forecast, 2003 - 2008 (in Thousands)
- Table 16. Example
Differentiators Between Paying and Non-Paying MMORPG Players
- Table 17. US Paid
MMORPG Forecast, 2003 - 2008
- Table 18. US Free
MMORPG Forecast, 2003 - 2008
- Table 19. Total
US MMORPG Forecast, 2003 - 2008
- Table 20. WW Paid
MMORPG Forecast, 2003 - 2008
- Table 21. WW Free
MMORPG Forecast, 2003 - 2008
- Table 22. Total
WW MMORPG Forecast, 2003 - 2008
- Table 23. Worldwide
Online Gamer Forecasts 2003 - 2008 (in Thousands)
- Table 24. Worldwide
Online Revenue Forecasts for Console and MMORPG ($M)
- Table 25. Monthly
Online Gaming Bandwidth Consumption for the US (in Petabits)
- Table 26. Six-Year
Deployment Costs and Revenues for a Single BBP-Specific Game
- Table 27. Potential
Revenues for a Broadband Provider Deploying BBP-Specific Games
- Figure 1. OLG Revenues
and Subscribers 2003 - 2008 ($B and Millions of Subscribers)
- Figure 2. US Population
Versus RTS Population, by Age and Gender
- Figure 3. Average
Personal Income of MMORPG Players
- Figure 4. Survey
of Hours Playing MMORPGs per Week
- Figure 5. Peer-to-Peer
Gaming Connections
- Figure 6. Examples
of 4-way, 8-way, 16-way, and 32-way P2P Topographies
- Figure 7. Client/Server
Game Configuration
- Figure 8. What
Happens When All Gaming Technologies are Not in Balance
- Figure 9. Residential
Online Gaming Systems - Today and Tomorrow
- Figure 10. The
AlphaGrip Controller with Full Keyboard Capabilities
- Figure 11. The
4-year Valuation of Electronic Arts Stock, Compared with the Dow
- Figure 12. Speeds
for High-End CPUs out to 2007, as Predicted by Technology Trends
- Figure 13. Gaming
Technology is the Next Step in the Evolution Of Digital Content
- Figure 14. Winners
and Non-Winners in the PC versus Console Wars
- Figure 15. Enthusiasm
for Video Games as a Percentage of the US Computer Owners
- Figure 16. Weighted
Relative Utility of Gamers in the US Market (in Millions)
- Figure 17. Free
and Paid Cumulative Subscriber Forecast of Online Consoles, 2003 - 2008
- Figure 18. Revenues
and Data Usage Forecast of Online Consoles 2003 - 2008 ($M, Pb)
- Figure 19. Poll
of Most Important Aspects to Playing a MMORPG
- Figure 20. Monthly
Online Gamine Bandwidth Consumption for US Markets (Pb)
- Figure 21. Comparison
of Data Transfers to OLG Revenues in the US (Pb and $B)
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