Intel Manufacturing Capacity and Die Cost

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Report Abstract, Table of Contents, List of Tables, List of Figures

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Intel Manufacturing Capacity and Die Cost

Service: Intel Microprocessors
Report Number: IN0401409IN
Publication Date: July 2004
Number of Pages: 42
Report Price: $2,995 U.S. Dollars
Analyst: Jim McGregor

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Abstract
Intel, the world’s leading semiconductor manufacturing company, is in the midst of many changes in its microprocessor product portfolio and manufacturing strategy. In 2004, Intel is ramping production of new desktop and mobile microprocessors in Prescott and Dothan, respectively. In addition, Intel has announced the introduction of dual-core processors beginning in the second-half of 2005 to overcome the growing problems of leakage current and power consumption associated with smaller manufacturing process technology and increasing operating frequencies. These introductions will be accompanied by a shift in marketing from microprocessor speed grades to other feature and performance characteristics.

Intel is also ramping production on a 90nm process using 300mm wafers in 2004. The new process increases the number of potential units four times over the older 0.13µm process using 200mm wafers. Intel’s fab expansion strategy is also changing to favor the retooling of older fabs over building new megafabs. This report examines the changes in Intel’s product portfolio and manufacturing strategy and the effect on future capacity for IA-32 and IA-64 microprocessors.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
- Methodology
- Fab Model
Caveats and Uncertainties
Introduction
Intel’s Manufacturing Capacity & Technology
Intel’s Manufacturing Cost
Manufacturing Capabilities
- Intel’s Fabs
  - Fab Locations and Processes
  - Fab Capacity
    - 0.13µm Capacity
    - 90nm Capacity
    - 65nm Capacity
    - 45nm Capacity
    - 300mm Capacity
  - Capital Expenditures
- Manufacturing Capacity
- Semiconductor Process Technology
Manufacturing Cost
- Cost Estimates
  - The Cost Model
  - Process Parameters
  - Processor Packaging
  - Yield Issues
  - Processor Cost Estimates
- Cost Trends
  - Average Manufacturing Cost
  - Average Cost by Generation
  - Average Cost by Segment
  - Effect of On-die L2 Cache
  - Capacity Effects
Competition

List of Tables

Table 1. Current and Planned Intel Fabs by Process Type
Table 2. Intel Capital Expenditures (US$ Billions)
Table 3. Intel Manufacturing Processes
Table 4. P6-based Celeron Processor Power Specifications
Table 5. Pentium Processor Power Specifications
Table 6. Parameters of Present and Future Intel Processors
Table 7. Yield per Wafer by Processor
Table 8. Manufacturing Cost Estimates by Processor (US$)

List of Figures

Figure 1. Total Intel Fab Capacity in P4 (Willamette) (Units in Millions)
Figure 2. Average Manufacturing Cost of all Intel Processors (US$)
Figure 3. Intel Wafer Capacity † (Wafers in Thousands)
Figure 4. Intel Wafer Capacity (logarithmic scale) (Wafers in Thousands)
Figure 5. Intel Capacity and Growth Rate in Pentium 4 (Williamette using 0.13mm Process) (Units in Thousands, Growth Rate in Percent)
Figure 6. Percent of Wafer Production by Process
Figure 7. Ramp Rate of Intel Manufacturing Processes
Figure 8. Estimated Cost at Maturity by Processor Generation (US$)
Figure 9. Intel’s Average Manufacturing Cost (US$) and Die Size (mm2) per Chip
Figure 10. Average Manufacturing Cost by Processor Generation (US$)
Figure 11.Average Manufacturing Cost by Segment (logarithmic scale) (US$)
Figure 12. Projected Die Sizes for Processor Cores with Varying Amounts of L2 Cache (mm2)

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