- Executive Summary
- "Packaged
Goods" Makes A Great Business - For The Present
- Eventually,
On-Line And PUSH Services Will Cause Downward Pressure On The
Selling Prices Of "Packaged Goods"
- Disney, Microsoft
and Intel Are Likely To Be Winners
- Disruptors:
Akimbo, Euclid Discoveries, Synacor, thePlatform
- Methodology
- Years Of Experience
- Experienced
Team Of Analysts
- Key Trend Identified
- The Re-Emergence Of PUSH
- Previously
Issued Reports That Provide Useful Information
- Definitions
- What Are Consumer "Media" And "Content"?
- Be It "Media"
Or "Content" - It Has To Be Digital
- Consumer
"Media" - The Device That Contains The "Content"
- Pre-Programmed,
Manufactured Media Sold As "Packaged Goods"
- Self-Programmed
Media That Can Be Written On By Consumers
- Self-Programmable
Digital "Media" Poses A Threat To Copyright Owners
- Consumer
"Content" - The Digital Bits That Contain Information
- Making Five
Year Forecasts Requires Special Insight That Boldly Crosses Multiple
Disciplines
- Geographic
Segmentation Improves Our Accuracy
- Technology
Will Provide Amazing Breakthroughs That Alter The Market
- New Compression
and Transmission Methods Will Disrupt Current Business Models
- High
Definition TV, MPEG-4 And Microsoft Windows Media 9 Series
- DivX,
XviD, Euclid Discoveries, And Others Are Also Coming Along
- More
Bandwidth Coming To Consumers' Residences
- Personal
Computers (And Macintoshes) Have Been The "Engine"
Driving The Semiconductor Industry
- Moore's
Law Is Driving Technology
- Semiconductor
Industry Can Plan Their "Roadmap" Effectively
- Intel Is
Driving Incredible Technology Into The Consumer Market
- Network
Media Product Requirements (NMPR) Will Provide A Long-Term
Growth Opportunity For Media-Centric Personal Computers
- Intel
Is Uniquely Qualified To Drive Industry Compliance Efforts
- PCI Express
Brings Mainframe Performance To Home PCs
- Wireless
USB Expands The "Reach" Of PC Peripherals
- Industry Initiatives
Will Drive Consumer Electronics Shipments To Record Levels
- Digital
Home Working Group - Sony, Microsoft, Intel, Others
- The Internet
Streaming Media Alliance (ISMA)
- Self-Made Personal
"Media" And Personal "Content" Are Becoming
Ubiquitous
- CD Players
Embrace MP-3, WMA, AAC, Ogg Vorbis, Others
- Digital
Audio Players Move Music Off Of Computers And Into Pockets
- Now,
CD And DVD Players Provide Multiple Formats "Built
In"
- DVD Players
Shipping With Support For DivX, XviD, Others
- DVD Recorders
May Face The Same Situation
- DVD
Recorders With Built-In Hard Disk Drives
- Worldwide Shipments
Of Selected Personal "Content" Authoring Products
- Personal Computers
with PCI Express - Shipments
- Digital Still
Image Cameras - Shipments
- Digital Camcorders
- Shipments
- DVD Recorders
- Shipments
- DVD Recorders
Coupled With Disk Drives Create New Possibilities
- MediaCenter
Personal Computers With Hard Disk Drives &Built-In DVD Recorders
Will Change The World
- Microsoft's
MediaCenter PC Extenders Will Become Available Soon
- Worldwide Shipments
Through 2008
- Worldwide Installed
Base Of Selected Personal "Content" Authoring Products
- Why The Installed
Base Is So Important
- Playback
Only Products Will Be Replaced With "Record, Edit, Store
& Playback" Devices
- When
"Record, Edit, Store & Playback" Devices Become
The Mainstream, Copyrighted "Content" Will Be
In Jeopardy
- Personal
Computers with PCI Express - Installed Base
- Digital
Still Image Cameras - Installed Base
- Digital
Camcorders - Installed Base
- DVD Recorders-
Installed Base
- Installed Base
Through 2008
- How The Consumer
Media And Content Environment Is Changing
- The "Freckle
Effect" Appears Again - Each Region Will Develop Independently
- The "Freckle
Effect" Illustrates The Independent Geographical Markets
For "Consumer Media And Content"
- Four Key Transitions
Are Driving The Changes
- The Four
Key Transitions Create A "Cause & Effect" Engine
- Return On Assets
For "Content" Owners Is Only Going To Become More Difficult
In The Future
- "Packaged
Goods" Business Will Peak, And Then Be Impacted By Consumer
Digital Recorders And On-Line Systems And Services
- Transition
From Analog "Content" To Digital "Content"
- First Transition
From Analog "Content" To Digital "Content"
Is Well Under Way
- The Technology
In Professional "Content" Creation Equipment Is Being
Put Into Semiconductors That Can Be Used By Consumers
- Transition
From Professional "Content" Creation To Personal "Content"
Creation
- Second
Transition Is Professional Equipment For Personal "Content"
- Everybody Can Be a "Content" Producer
- Transition
From Professional Distribution To Personal Distribution
- Third Transition
Taking Place Right Now - Everybody Can Become A "Content"
Publisher And On-Line Distributor
- The Fourth Transition
Is Blurring The Lines Between Professional "Content" and
Personal "Content
- The Fourth
Transition Will Be All-Digital "Content" That Causes
A Blurring Between Professional "Content" And Personal
"Content"
- Hip-Hop And
Rap Music "Sampling" Is An Excellent Example
- Professional
"Content" Was Under The Control Of "Content" Owners
- Audio "Content"
Created The Market Procedures And Processes For Packaged Goods
And "Media"
- Broadcast
Television Created The Market Procedures and Processes For Transmitted
Video "Content" And Medium
- Professional
"Content" And Digital Entertainment Distribution
- Fiber-To-The-Home
& Ethernet Passive Optical Networks
- Personal Technology
Threatens Professional "Content"
- Three Figures
Illustrate The Migration Of "Content"
- The Difference
Between Professional "Content" And Personally Archived
Versions Of That "Content"
- Electronic Network
Delivery Services Create A New Playing Field
- Consumer Video
Rising To The Level Of Professional And Business Video
- Increased
Convenience
- On-Line
Services Have No Lines, Always In Stock, No Damaged Goods
- No Late
Fees, Only Pay For Programs You Actually View
- Synacor
- The Re-Emergence
Of PUSH Technology
- The PointCast
Concept Re-Awakens An Industry
- Walled
Gardens Re-Shape The Idea Of PUSHing "Content"
- Key
Ingredients - Contracts For "Content" - Ease Of
Use For Subscribers - A Broadband Service As A Strategic
Partner
- Akimbo
- thePlatform
- Microsoft Windows
Media
- Windows Media
9 Series Provides Support From Cell Phone To Cinema
- High Definition
Television Being Promoted By Windows Media
- Microsoft Is
An Industry Leader For Digital Rights Management
- Making "Content"
Portable Is Coming Next
- Partnerships
With Disney, Time-Warner, And Others
- Disney's MovieBeam
- Disney Belongs
To Movielink
- MovieBeam
Expands Disney's Presence In Electronic Entertainment
- It's A Quintessential
"Walled Garden" Using PUSH Technology
- MovieBeam Takes
Advantage Of Dotcast Wireless Datacasting Technology
- Dotcast
Technology Can Deliver Up To 3 Megabits/Second Over Analog TV
Signals
- Dotcast's
Approach Reaches Maximum Viewers At Minimum Cost
- Dotcast's
Technology Spans Analog + Digital Delivery Systems
- Dotcast's
Concept Is Called The "Digital Shelf"
- MovieBeam Makes
Their "Content" Extremely Convenient For Consumers To
Enjoy
- Another
Advantage - No Waiting For Downloads
- Only Pay
For What You Use, And Never Any Late Fees
- Can Take
100 Movies "On The Road" Very Easily
- Other PUSH
Network Connections Can Be Used
- MovieBeam
Is An Excellent "Portal" For Electronic Entertainment
- Two Disruptive
Influences
- USA Video Interactive
Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against Movielink
- Euclid Discoveries
- Image Compression
- Regional Forecasts
- Four Categories
Of Personal Content Items In Use
- DVD Recorders
In Use
- DVD
Recorders May Replace Some Sales Of Packaged Goods
- Personal
Computers With PC-TV Tuners In Use
- MediaCenter
PCs Capture, Edit, Store, Publish and Distribute Video,
Audio and Photographic "Content"
- Basic Broadband
Connections In Use
- Premium
Broadband Connections In Use
- Personal "Content"
Items In Use, By Category, In North America
- TV Households
With Digital Recording Equipment And Broadband Connections In
Use
- Personal "Content"
Items In Use, By Category, In Europe
- Europe
To Surpass North America During 2005 And Have World's Largest
Installed Base Of PC-TV Tuners By 2008
- Personal "Content"
Items In Use, By Category, In Asia
- Asia To
Drive Solid Growth For Broadband Connections
- Personal "Content"
Items In Use, By Category, In The Rest-of-the-World (ROW)
- ROW To
Account For Strong, Continued Growth
- Worldwide Summary
By Category
- Worldwide Growth
For Personal "Content" Items In Use Will Top 35% CAGR
Through 2008
- Worldwide Summary
By Region
- Asia And Europe
To Be A Strong One-Two Punch, With North America Surprisingly Behind
In Number Three By 2008
- Conclusion
- Professional
"Content" Will Continue To Grow Through This Decade, But
Revenues May Flatten Out As Alternative Personal "Content"
Technologies Gain Ground
- Media Publishers
And Professional Networks Will Need To Adjust Prices Downward,
Which Affects Their Return On Assets (ROA)
- Personal
"Content" Will Re-Direct Consumers, Reducing Their
Capacity For Professional "Content"
- The "Freckle
Effect" Will Continue To Hold True - Regional Tendencies Will
Be Unique
- North America's
Early Build-Out Of Digital Cable Slows The "Up Take"
For Personal "Content" Equipment
- Wide
Availability Of Published "Media" Also Holds Its
Own
- North
America Runs Second, Slips To Third
- North
American Market For Professional "Content" Likely
To Benefit
- Europe's
Initial Lack Of Digital Cable, And Slow Broadband Deployments,
Set The Stage For Powerful Growth
- Europe
Begins Small, Becomes A Contender For #1 By 2008
- Asia's
Rapid Deployment Of DSL Makes Them The Top Market
- Asia
To Be The Top Market Through 2008
- The ROW
Countries Will Provide Pockets Of Opportunity
- ROW
Countries Present Opportunities For All Professional "Content"
- Worldwide
Summary
- Disney, Microsoft
And Intel Are Positioned To Be Big Winners
- Today's On-Line
Entertainment Sites Are Just Emerging From Being Experiments
- It's Going
To Be A PUSH World, With Special Devices
- Consumers Prefer
The Convenience Of "Content" That Is Already Available
And Is Portable
- Disney's MovieBeam
Is A Leading Indicator For PUSH Delivery Of Professional "Content"
- Microsoft's
Technologies Optimize And Manage PUSH "Content" - Both
Professional And Personal
- Intel's Mobile
Technology Becomes An Important Platform For PUSH "Content"
- Both Professional And Personal
- Table 1. Worldwide
Summary Of Personal "Content" Items And Connections In Use
(pieces of consumer video recording equipment in use, in thousands,
Broadband Connections in use, in thousands, annual growth in percent,
Compound Annual Growth Rate in percent)
- Table 2. Worldwide
Shipments Of Selected Personal "Content" Products (annual
unit shipments in thousands, by category, annual growth rate in percent,
percent of worldwide total annual shipments by category, Compound Annual
Growth Rate)
- Table 3. Worldwide
Installed Base Of Selected Personal "Content" Products (annual
estimate of installed base, by category, annual growth rate in percent,
percent of worldwide total annual shipments by category, Compound Annual
Growth Rate)
- Table 4. DVD-Recorders,
PC-TV Tuners, And Broadband Connections In Use In North America (number
of units in use in thousands, annual growth rate in percent, percent
of regional total, Compound Annual Growth Rate)
- Table 5. DVD-Recorders,
PC-TV Tuners, And Broadband Connections In Use In Europe (number of
units in use in thousands, annual growth rate in percent, percent of
regional total, Compound Annual Growth Rate)
- Table 6. DVD-Recorders,
PC-TV Tuners, And Broadband Connections In Use In Asia (number of units
in use in thousands, annual growth rate in percent, percent of regional
total, Compound Annual Growth Rate)
- Table 7. DVD-Recorders,
PC-TV Tuners, And Broadband Connections In Use In ROW (number of units
in use in thousands, annual growth rate in percent, percent of regional
total, Compound Annual Growth Rate)
- Table 8. DVD-Recorders,
PC-TV Tuners, And Broadband Connections In Use Worldwide (number of
units in use in thousands, annual growth rate in percent, percent of
regional total, Compound Annual Growth Rate)
- Table 9. Total
Of All DVD-Recorders, PC-TV Tuners, And Broadband Connections In Use
By Region (number of units in use in thousands, annual growth rate in
percent, percent of regional total, Compound Annual Growth Rate)
- Table 10. Worldwide
Combined Total Of Personal Recording Equipment And Broadband Connections
In Use (number of units in use in thousands, annual growth rate in percent,
percent of regional total, Compound Annual Growth Rate)
- Figure 1. Worldwide
Installed Base Of Selected Personal "Content" Products
- Figure 2. Ways
Professional "Media" and "Content" Get Delivered
To Consumers
- Figure 3. Professional
"Content" Is Delivered To Consumers, Via A Professional "Medium"
or Via Professionally Published "Media"
- Figure 4. Professional
"Content" Gets Transmitted to Consumers, Who Archive It On
CDs and DVDs - Professional "Content" And Personal "Content"
Co-Mingle
- Figure 5. Consumers
Archive Professional "Content" Onto Discs, Or Transmit It,
On The Same Equipment They Use For Personal "Content" Creation
- Figure 6. DVD-Recorders,
PC-TV Tuners, And Broadband Connections In Use In North America
- Figure 7. DVD-Recorders,
PC-TV Tuners, And Broadband Connections In Use In Europe
- Figure 8. DVD-Recorders,
PC-TV Tuners, And Broadband Connections In Use In Asia
- Figure 9. DVD-Recorders,
PC-TV Tuners, And Broadband Connections In Use In ROW
- Figure 10. DVD-Recorders,
PC-TV Tuners, And Broadband Connections In Use Worldwide
- Figure 11. Total
Of All DVD-Recorders, PC-TV Tuners, And Broadband Connections In Use
By Region
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