Semiconductor Product Market Forecast: Into the Downturn

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Semiconductor Product Market Forecast: Into the Downturn

Service: Semiconductor Markets & Applications
Report Number: IN0402445SI
Publication Date: December 2004
Number of Pages: 66
Report Price: $2,995 U.S. Dollars
Analyst: Frank Dickson

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Abstract
The ever-cyclical semiconductor industry is once again entering a down period. Primarily because of excess downstream inventories, third quarter 2004 worldwide revenue grew by only 3.2% while unit shipments fell by 0.7%. Fourth quarter is expected to see declines in both unit shipments and revenue resulting in 2004 annual revenue growth of only 27.0%, well below the 30%+ growth that many had been expecting only a few months ago. This, however, will result in annual revenue of $211.4 billion, a new annual record.

This forecast updates our October 2003 forecast report. It examines the economic outlook throughout the world, semiconductor markets and the semiconductor industry's capacity situation. The five-year forecast is broken out by region and by major product type.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
Methodology
Introduction
Environment and Assumptions
- The Economy
  - The Semiconductor Industry and the Economy
  - Regional Economies
    - US and the Americas
    - Europe
    - Japan
    - Asia Pacific
    - Worldwide
  - The Overall Semiconductor Market
  - Some Specific Semiconductor Markets
- Supply
Worldwide Semiconductor Forecast
- Products
- Integrated Circuits and Discretes
  - Discrete, Optoelectronics and Sensor
- Integrated Circuit Products
  - Digital Bipolar
  - Analog
  - MOS Micro
  - MOS Logic
  - MOS Memory
- Regional

List of Tables

Table 1. Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue (Billions of US $), Unit Shipments (Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US $)
Table 2. Changes in GDP by Major Region
Table 3. Worldwide GDP Annual Growth
Table 4. Semiconductor Revenue by Major End-Use Market, 1993-2003 (Billions of US$)
Table 5. MOS IC Wafer Fab Statistics (Capacity and Starts in Thousands of 8" Equivalent Wafers per Week).
Table 6. Semiconductor Industry Equipment and Total Capital Expenditures, and Total Revenues (Billions of US dollars)
Table 7. Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue (Billions of US $), Unit Shipments (Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US $)
Table 8. Semiconductor Revenue by Product (Billions of US $)
Table 9. Worldwide Revenues - Discrete, Optical & Sensor and Integrated Circuit (Billions of US $)
Table 10. Worldwide Unit Shipments - Discrete, Optical & Sensor and Integrated Circuit.
Table 11. Worldwide ASP - Discrete, Optical & Sensor and Integrated Circuit
Table 12. Worldwide Discrete, Optical & Sensor Revenues (Billions of US $), Unit Shipments (Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US $)
Table 13. Discrete, Optical & Sensor Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Table 14. Discrete, Optical & Sensor Revenue Trending by Sub-product (Billions of US $)
Table 15. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Revenues (Billions of US $), Unit Shipments (Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US $)
Table 16. Integrated Circuit Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Table 17. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Revenue by Product Type (Billions of US $)
Table 18. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Unit Shipments by Product Type (Billions)
Table 19. Worldwide Integrated Circuit ASP by Product Type (US$)
Table 20. Worldwide Digital Bipolar Revenues (Billions of US $), Unit Shipments (Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US $)
Table 21. Digital Bipolar Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Table 22. Digital Bipolar Revenue Trending by Sub-product (Billions of US $)
Table 23. Worldwide Analog Revenues (Billions of US $), Unit Shipments (Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US $)
Table 24. Analog Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Table 25. Analog Revenue Trending by Sub-Product (Billions of US $)
Table 26. Worldwide MOS Micro Revenues (Billions of US $), Unit Shipments (Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US $)
Table 27. MOS Micro Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Table 28. MOS Micro Revenue Trending by Sub-product (Billions of US $)
Table 29. Worldwide MOS Logic Revenues (Billions of US $), Unit Shipments (Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US $)
Table 30. MOS Logic Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Table 31. MOS Logic Revenue Trending by Sub-product (Billions of US $)
Table 32. Worldwide MOS Memory Revenues (Billions of US $), Unit Shipments (Billions), and Aggregate ASP (US $)
Table 33. MOS Memory Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Table 34. MOS Memory Revenue Trending by Sub-product (Billions of US $)
Table 35. Semiconductor Revenue by Region (%)

List of Figures

Figure 1. Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue, Unit Shipments, and Aggregate ASP
Figure 2. Annual Percent Changes in Worldwide Semiconductor Revenues, Unit Shipments, CapEx and Worldwide Real GDP, 1986 through 2003
Figure 3. Annual Percent Changes in Worldwide Semiconductor Revenues and Worldwide Real GDP, 1977 through 2003
Figure 4. Distribution of World GDP (2003) by Major Region
Figure 5. Annual Changes in GDP by Major Region
Figure 6. Worldwide GDP Annual Growth
Figure 7. Semiconductor Revenue by Major End-Use Market, 1993-2001
Figure 8. MOS IC Wafer Fabs Utilization
Figure 9. MOS IC Wafer Fabs Capacity and Wafer Starts
Figure 10. MOS IC Wafer Capacity by Process Geometry
Figure 11. Semiconductor Industry Capital Expenditures
Figure 12. Semiconductor Equipment Book to Bill Ratio
Figure 13. Semiconductor Equipment Capital Spending (Millions of US $)
Figure 14. Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue, Unit Shipments, and Aggregate ASP
Figure 15. Semiconductor Revenue by Product
Figure 16. Semiconductor Revenue Share by Product
Figure 17. Worldwide Revenues - Discrete, Optical, and Sensor and Integrated Circuit
Figure 18. Worldwide Unit Shipments - Discrete, Optical & Sensor and Integrated Circuit
Figure 19. Worldwide ASP - Discrete, Optical & Sensor and Integrated Circuit.
Figure 20. Worldwide Discrete, Optical & Sensor Revenues, Unit Shipments, and Aggregate ASP
Figure 21. Discrete, Optical & Sensor Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Figure 22. Discrete, Optical & Sensor Revenue Trending by Sub-Product
Figure 23. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Revenues, Unit Shipments, and Aggregate ASP
Figure 24. Integrated Circuit Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Figure 25. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Revenue by Product Type
Figure 26. Worldwide Integrated Circuit Unit Shipments by Product Type
Figure 27. Worldwide Integrated Circuit ASP by Product Type
Figure 28. Worldwide Digital Bipolar Revenues, Unit Shipments, and Aggregate ASP
Figure 29. Digital Bipolar Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Figure 30. Digital Bipolar Revenue Trending by Sub-product
Figure 31. Worldwide Analog Revenues, Unit Shipments, and Aggregate ASP
Figure 32. Analog Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Figure 33. Analog Revenue Trending by Sub-Product
Figure 34. Worldwide MOS Micro Revenues, Unit Shipments, and Aggregate ASP
Figure 35. MOS Micro Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Figure 36. MOS Micro Revenue Trending by Sub-product
Figure 37. Worldwide MOS Logic Revenues, Unit Shipments, and Aggregate ASP
Figure 38. MOS Logic Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Figure 39. MOS Logic Revenue Trending by Sub-product
Figure 40. Worldwide MOS Memory Revenues, Unit Shipments, and Aggregate ASP
Figure 41. MOS Memory Revenue by Region (Billions of US $)
Figure 42. MOS Memory Revenue Trending by Sub-product
Figure 43. Semiconductor Revenue by Region
Figure 44. Semiconductor Revenue by Region (%)

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