|
DTV
Broadcasters
Taxi To the Runway,
But
Set Manufacturers Delay Takeoff
The
first digital television broadcasts opened a new chapter
in broadcast history last November, a positive sign for
TV manufacturers who are looking for a way to shore up
revenues in a market where unit prices are falling. But
despite the optimism of the Consumer Electronics Manufacturers
Association (CEMA), manufacturing history is not quite
ready to be made, according to a research report from
Cahners In-Stat Group. "CEMA has a much rosier picture
of digital television shipments, on average twice our
forecast until 2004," says senior analyst Michelle Abraham.
She notes that CEMA's optimism may be based on its position
as an industry organization.
U.S. Digital
Television Unit Shipment Forecasts
(Unit Shipments, Thousands)
Source: Cahners In-Stat Group
Before
manufacturers can reap the advantages of the high prices
for Digital TV sets, several pieces must fall into place,
Cahners In-Stat says. The manufacturers must educate consumers
about the improved picture and sound of digital television.
They must interest the public in high-end High Definition
TV (HDTV) sets, which offer the best quality audio and
video, but at prices well over $4,000 per set, Cahners
In-Stat notes. They must lobby for FCC regulation that
will cause cable TV systems to start providing HDTV programming.
And they must encourage content providers to increase
the amount of HDTV programming available. There is no
point to buying an HDTV set to watch only a few hours
each week.
"A
lack of programming will hamper manufacturers' efforts
to sell the highest margin HDTV sets in the early years,"
Abraham says. "But the less expensive SDTV sets, which
will have the lion's share of the digital TV set market
by 2005, will heighten interest in digital TV and help
propel sales." Digital Broadcast Satellite (DBS) providers
already transmit standard Definition TV signals. SDTV
uses the same 480 lines of information as analog but with
the crispness of a digital signal and Dolby sound.
Besides
the lack of content, one remaining issue for digital TV
set manufacturers is connectivity, Cahners In-Stat notes.
At this time, digital TV transcoder set top boxes and
digital TV sets use analog connections, but IEEE 1394
has widespread support. The greatest connection concern
is how to connect cable set top boxes to digital TV sets
since the overwhelming majority of U.S. consumers receive
their TV signal via cable. Current cable set top boxes
will have to pass through the digital TV signal for decoding
inside a transcoder set top box or a digital TV set. However
the programming and standards issues work out, Cahners
In-Stat believes that the Digital TV manufacturers will
be off and running shortly after the year 2000 and will
begin realizing success from digital TV by 2005.
Report
Information
The
Cahners In-Stat Group report, The DTV Manufacturer
Agenda, provides an analysis of the consumer electronics
manufacturers who are developing, producing, and marketing
digital television sets and receivers as compared to the
views of the networks, broadcasters, DBS providers, and
cable TV operators. A discussion of the five-year forecasts
for DTV sets from Cahners In-Stat Group and CEMA is also
included.
How
to buy this report
|
